Current reading · updated weekly · analyst-signed
Crisis scale · 0–100
Managed Instability
Where are we?

Managed Instability

Serious systemic stress, actively contained by authorities — orderly for now, but fragile. Prioritise liquidity and contingency planning over new risk-taking.

6.6 pts to Intervention Risk
CSI-C · Conservative61.6
CSI-S · Sensitive68.4
Consensus Gap+6.7
Evidence Confidence66 · high

Geopolitics & Geoeconomy

  • Geostrategic Realignment
  • Geoeconomic / Trade War

Conflict

  • Kinetic Conflict & Militarization
  • Proxy Frictions & Escalation

Economy & Markets

  • Financial & Safe-Haven Stress
  • Energy, Resources & Power Costs

Systemic & Resilience

  • Tech, Cyber & Defense Disruption
  • Domestic Instability of Major Powers
  • Maritime Chokepoints & Supply Lines
  • Food & Agricultural Insecurity

Ten indicators across geopolitics, conflict, economy and systemic resilience — each analyst-reviewed before it moves a score.

One weekly reading · analyst-signed · outlook with stated uncertaintyHow the index is built